Our Outlook:
Navigating the Coming Transformation
Part I: Our Diagnosis
For decades, smarter-than-human artificial intelligence has been the stuff of science fiction. The idea has become so familiar that it can be difficult to take seriously, easy to dismiss as just another wave of tech industry hype. And yet, while opinions vary, something fundamental has shifted. There is a growing consensus among expert forecasters and the top scientists at the companies developing the most advanced AI that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is no longer a distant dream. The common prediction among many informed experts is a 50% chance of AGI by 2030 or 2031. In fact, between 2022 and 2023, the median prediction from experts for AGI’s arrival jumped forward by 13 years.
It is critical to stop and think for a moment about what this means. This is not just another technological update. The arrival of machines that can perform most intellectual tasks as well as a person, and shortly thereafter, better than a person, will have seismic effects on our world. We tend to think first of our jobs and the economy, which will radically transform, but there will also be huge shifts in education, health care, and governance. Even if your job feels safe at present, your world may be turned upside down.
We are facing a level of disruption that we as a planet are simply not prepared for. As a society, we have a near-aversion to the topic, similar to how many feel about the climate crisis. It can feel like there is nothing we can do, so it becomes tempting to simply skip over the next headline. This sense of helplessness, however, can prevent us from taking reasonable steps. We may experience significant anxiety and disorientation as these changes unfold, arriving in a world where AIs have more power, and less transparency, than we are comfortable wit. Decisions are currently being controlled by a small number of people, and the possibilities for accidents, runaway technologies, or malicious misuse are so serious that we cannot afford to be passive observers.
The challenge is clear. A change is coming on a scale humankind has never experienced. The systems that have defined our lives for generations—how we learn, how we earn a living, how we govern ourselves—are set to be turned upside down. Complacency is no longer a viable option.
Part II: Our Stance
At Keranaut, we believe that facing this reality is the first step toward navigating it successfully. We do not claim to have all the answers, because no one can confidently predict how exactly the next few years will unfold. The future is an impenetrable haze for many. But this uncertainty does not have to lead to paralysis. Instead, a measured assessment of potential futures makes clear the wisdom of preparing for a wide range of disruptions to the way we live now.
This mission is not a theoretical exercise for us. I founded Keranaut after spending more than 20 years leading multi-million dollar projects amid the most extreme types of disruption. I had to become an expert in planning, adaptation, and resilience not just to keep my teams safe through coups, tsunamis, and disease, but to protect my own family. That experience taught me a fundamental lesson: resilience is not an accident; it is a planned capacity. We are now applying the hard-won lessons from those real-world crises to the digital tempest on the horizon.
Our philosophy is built on a dual mission: we must simultaneously work to ensure a better future while preparing for the challenges that future may bring.
First, we must advocate for a safer and more human-first development of AI. We believe humanity has the time and ability to make the world a more prosperous place with technology, but it won’t just happen on its own. We must advocate for guardrails, for government oversight and licensing similar to controls on nuclear development, and for a transparent, well-funded AI auditing office in government. Concerned citizens must reject the framing that it is too early to regulate this technology; it is precisely at this early stage that we have the responsibility to set up principles to ensure AI is developed safely.
Second, we must thoughtfully prepare ourselves, our families, and our communities for the disruptions that are coming, regardless of our advocacy. This preparation cannot be merely tactical. It must be holistic, addressing the full spectrum of human needs in a world undergoing a fundamental transformation.
This is why we have structured our work around Six Pathways. We believe true resilience requires attending to our Practical and Physical Resilience, preparing for potential breakdowns in infrastructure and essential services. It requires tending to our Mental and Emotional Wellness, addressing the anxiety and disorientation that such rapid change inevitably causes. It demands that we begin Reimagining Purpose and Livelihood for a world where our identity may no longer be tied to our jobs. It involves Organizational Adaptation, helping our institutions ask existential questions about their very survival. And it calls for a Cognitive and Ethical Expansion, stretching how we think and what we value to meet the complexity of what's coming. This is the work of building genuine preparedness.
Part III: Our Invitation
These can be disquieting subjects to ponder. We understand the temptation to turn away. But at Keranaut, we feel the time to engage is now. This is not a call for alarmism or retreat. It is a call to face the future with intention, curiosity, and courage. It is a call to build capacity for action.
Keranaut is derived from the Greek words for "lightning" and "explorer"; it means voyager in the storm. We are a group of economists, philosophers, psychologists, and experts in life coaching and organizational adaptation. Our team brings decades of success across business, non-profit, and government sectors, and expertise in a variety of strategies to stay safe and comfortable in scenarios where infrastructure breaks down. We are dedicated to readying humanity to thrive after an AI revolution.
We do this by helping people gain the most needed skills for the most likely scenarios. We offer trainings, workshops, coaching, and counseling to help you gain clarity and strengthen your emotional resilience. We help you reimagine what a purpose-driven life can be, how to make financial decisions for a transformed tomorrow, and how to maintain connection when systems are unreliable. We guide you through compelling discussions on how technology intersects with morality, and the steps we need to take to ensure we build a society that stays human in the ways most important to us.
This isn't a distant, abstract threat. It has direct implications for the most important, long-term decisions you are making right now. Any decision affecting your life more than three to five years from now—your children's education, job training, your real estate choices, even your insurance policies—should factor in the rise of AI. The traditional wisdom on financial planning and how to succeed in the job market is being turned upside down. Navigating this requires a new map, and the time to start reading it is now
The tempest on its way may be wonderful, it may be challenging, but it is certainly coming. The changes ahead are significant, and most people feel unready. But you do not have to face this alone. There are things we can and must do to mitigate the chance of worst-case scenarios, and to prepare ourselves for potential shocks to society. It is time to start making life decisions with AI in mind.
Let’s navigate the future, together.
Join us. Connect with us to learn about upcoming events and insights. Let’s work together to help make sure humankind thrives in its next phase of evolution.